The Microsoft/Intel monopoly for desktop computing devices is a Darwinian phenomenon that results not from any particular business or technological smarts at Microsoft, but, rather, from an almost biological drive in the marketplace toward a standardized product.
This is not to say that Microsoft is anything less than Machiavellian in its dealings with its competitors and customers, it's just that its success has happened almost in spite of so many fumbling attempts at plumbing, interface and content design.
In this case, the natural selection of a single product is based simply on the fact that we don’t like to be challenged by having to figure out how to use a device, nor, in general, are we comfortable using a device that’s very different from one used by our neighbor. There are all kinds of fancy economic theories about the lock-in of inferior products and “networked” economies, but the truth is we’re boring.
Televisions, telephones, audio equipment, automobiles, toasters,
and vibrating easy chairs all operate basically the same way.
Why should computers be any different? The commodification and
wide proliferation of “smart” devices will eliminate Microsoft’s
monopoly - not the Department of Justice. Now, when is a very
different and sixty-four zillion dollar question.
Kooks.
Sure there’ll be problems, but the nature of digital technologies is one of rapid attrition. I really feel like a very large percentage of critical systems have been replaced; again by my reliable Darwinian processes, certainly not by any preplanning by large organizations. I don't think we need to head for the hills. Just because I cashed out my retirement savings and have been burying barrels of water doesn’t mean I’m worried.
Now, my great-aunt Vera has a year 2000 problem. Her husband died
several years ago, and, as is the Southern (U.S.) custom, she
went ahead and bought a “double” tombstone with old uncle Erby’s
relevant information as well as her name, date of birth and a
big ‘ole 19__ etched right in the tomb rock. It seems that she’s
lived a bit longer than she expected. As any 92-year-old Southern
belle would be, she’s pretty resolved to the issue. She told me
that her Y2K compliance plan was, “When I croak, they’ll caulk.”
10:38 CST, Jan. 28, 1986. I was working on a cantankerous mini-computer-based e-mail system in Building 4663 at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
It was stunning experience. MSFC is a campus of about 5,000 civil-servants and contractors. On the day of the explosion there was a palpable, almost physical, sense of sadness throughout the Center. The next day there was a pervasive “how do we keep it from happening next-time atmosphere.”
Even though the gait and pace of NASA can be that of a typical
lumbering bureaucracy, from the guy who paints lines in the parking
lot to the lady who operates a space telescope, there’s a feeling
a ownership, participation, and enfranchisement in the NASA “mission.”
It’s a neat place to work.
Just one? I won’t try to be profound about some classic, meta-physical work by a dead white guy. We all know we should eat our broccoli.
There’s a new writer, Charles Frazier, who, last year, released a spare, elegant, and authentically-voiced book set at the close of the American Civil War called “Cold Mountain.” It’s about one man’s journey home and his journey toward the realization that life is brief, difficult and precious, and that we shouldn’t spend much time or energy beyond trying to be with those we love and to seek our own version of beauty when and where we can. It’s a really extraordinary first, or, for that matter, third, or fiftieth novel.
For those interested in reading about the nature and impact of technology, David Gelerntner published a wonderful book, “Machine Beauty,” last year. His essays can be somewhat pedantic but he’s a sure-nuff computer scientist with a soul, a heart, and a keen eye for the human condition - and that is a rarity.
Then again, “Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot" by Al Franken ain’t bad either, but you said one so, I won’t
mention Mark Helprin, Gabriel Garcia-Marquez, or Isabelle Allende.
Copyright 1998, Thomas L. Mangan
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